23 January 2006

Super Bowl Pick Extravaganza

There's only 1 game so we're going to go all out here. Not only are we going to pick final score, we're going to get into yards, rushing TDs, passing TDs, and FGs. The game will be broken down into a massive 19 categories. Some categories will be worth 2 points. The rest will be worth 1. A tie will split the point unless otherwise stated. I'm looking for some really real indepth analysis. Here are the categories:

2 Pointers:
-Closest to actual winner's score.
-Closest to actual loser's score.
-Closest to actual point spread.
-Closest to total points scored.
-Correctly picked the winner vs. the spread (This point will NOT be shared or split.)

1 Pointers:
-Pittsburg Team Rushing Yards
-Seattle Team Rushing Yards
-Pittsburg Team Passing Yards
-Seattle Team Passing Yards
-Pittsburg Rushing TDs
-Seattle Rushing TDs
-Pittsburg Passing TDs
-Seattle Passing TDs
-Pittsburg FGs
-Seattle FGs
-Box Score for 1st Quarter*
-Box Score for 2nd Quarter*
-Box Score for 3rd Quarter*
-Box Score for 4th Quarter*

*Now for the Box Scores by quarter, I only want the points for that quarter. So if after 1 quarter the score is P 14 S 7 and after 2 quarters the score is P 17 S 14, the box scores are "Quarter 1: P 14 S 7" and "Quarter 2: P 3 S 7."

The standard line is Pittsburg favored by 4.

Oh and just so you know, I'm not going to enforce that the numbers should add up. If you want to give box scores that don't add up to your final score prediction or put any other contradictions in there, go right ahead.

Update: Don't forget the Super Bowl is this week. Be sure to get your pick in.

7 Comments:

At 1:11 PM, Blogger Laddi said...

This game stinks. No one on the east coast, except dorks like me, watched the Seahawks play outside of their night games (if even that) and the playoffs. Seattle is one of those nebulous teams that most people would say, “Seattle still is in the NFL?” On the other side, Pittsburgh hasn’t won a Super Bowl in almost 25 years, yet everyone thinks their team is just as good as the Steel Curtain and Franco’s Italian Army. So prognosticating this game will be tough for anyone.

Pittsburgh’s offense: good play action, excellent screens, and a heavy run game.
Seattle’s defense: Solid linebackers, good blitzing team, and an excellent pass rush (tops in sacks).
Advantage: Seattle by a hair.

Trufant and Dyson aren’t exactly stellar corners. They try to cheat by using Babineaux in free safety to man-zone the speedsters, which doesn’t always work especially against teams like Pittsburgh who have 4 viable receiving threats (Ward, Randle-El, Wilson, and Miller), plus a good screen game. Pittsburgh will not be able to get a good running game going, so the play action won’t work. Rocky Bernard is Seattle’s secret weapon, so secret you likely haven’t heard of him. This guy had 8.5 sacks and 31 unassisted tackles as a defensive TACKLE. Edge-running be damned, this guy gets pressure through the guts and fills holes to stop the run. And speaking of edge-rushing, on the left side of the line, there’s only Bryce Fisher with 9 sacks. Seattle’s OLB are equally good in both pass rushing and run stopping too. So there’ll be nowhere for Bettis or Parker to run. The battle is Pittsburgh’s offensive line versus Seattle’s defensive line. If Seattle gets to Roethlisberger often in the first half, Pittsburgh is done.

Pittsburgh’s defense: Blitz, blitz, blitz, and throw a little run stopping in there
Seattle’s offense: Excellent offensive line (esp. for the run) and with Darrell Jackson back, they have passing options, too. VERY balanced offense.
Advantage: Pittsburgh by a Palomalu

Watch any Pittsburgh game and you’ll see why Palomalu is so effective. It’s not only that he’s fast or hits hard, it’s that their defensive coordinator positions him off the weak side edge, regardless of the play. Every blitz with Palomalu: weak side. Strong side blitzing? Joey Porter. Now, that’s not uncommon for teams to blitz DBs off the weak side, but there are no tackles or running back that can handle the speed he brings. Palomalu is the X-factor. If you stop Shaggy, you have a good chance of winning. So how do you stop him? That’s the problem. To effectively stop him, you have to double-team him with a tackle and TE, and THEN have your running back stay in the backfield. So you’re occupying to potential receivers to block one guy. Even with a slot receiver, that’s only three guys for all three of your DBs to cover and your 3 LBs (one will be blitzing on the other side or double loading the Palomalu side). Six against three is much easier than five on six. There’s no way Seattle can open up its offense if they can’t get Alexander rolling. But all is not lost since they have LG Steve Hutchinson and LT Walter Jones on the left side of the ball. Yeah, they both are starting in the Pro Bowl. Their center is nothing to sneeze at either. But Seattle cannot win this game on the back of Alexander alone. Or maybe they can...

Final analysis: I really don’t think Seattle has the defense to completely stop the Pittsburgh offense, and that Pittsburgh’s defense only need to control the run the game to win. Seattle will grab a few TDs in the second half as Pittsburgh tries to contain but not dominate them after the first half.

Despite my final, I could easily see a 27-24 finish, so while I think Pittsburgh will win, and may win handedly, I’m taking Seattle and the points.

Box score
Pittsburgh
3 10 14 3 = 27
Seattle
0 3 7 10 = 20

Rushing Yds
Pittsburgh - 95
Seattle - 80

Passing Yds
Pittsburgh - 280
Seattle - 325

Rushing Tds
Pittsburgh - 1
Seattle - 1

Passing Tds
Pittsburgh - 2
Seattle - 1

Field Goals
Pittsburgh - 3
Seattle - 1

 
At 1:57 PM, Blogger Dante said...

Sadly with Super Bowl 40, Dallas has now only been in 1 out of 5 Super Bowls. This Seattle team reminds me of the most recent Dallas team to go to a Super Bowl. They have an incredibly accurate passer who is otherwise a decent QB and who has all day and night to find a receiver thanks to an incredible offensive line. Their running back is good but he wouldn't be the player he is without that line and his FB who knock down at least 2 people on most long runs. On defense they're pretty good but still have to blitz a bit to keep pressure going. And they can stop a run pretty well.

This Pittsburg team is as solid as any of the previous Pittsburg AFC Championship game teams that should've moved on to the Super Bowl (3 that I've seen). They have a good QB who doesn't have to scramble too much thanks to some good o-line plays and he can take a shot on a run there's just no other way. They have a running game that's not flashy but can pile up some yards before you know it. They have a 3-4 defense that doesn't really blitz all that much by traditional definitions. Yes, they do bring linebackers and DBs into the box on almost every down but in a 3-4 you can bring one guy in and it not be a blitz. Pittsburg only brings in more than 4 about 15% of the time (I forgot the actual percentage and I'm too lazy to look it back up right now.).

I like Seattle here because I think Pittsburg can effectively shut down one dimension of Seattle offense but Seattle will just pick up the other end. Likewise, I think Seattle can effectively stop the run without leaving too many receivers single covered. I also expect the secong guessing to come out midway through the 2nd quarter and absolutely ruin Cowher's chances at a Super Bowl win. He'll start sending in 5 or 6 regularly on defense and he'll start throwing way too much. Then Pittsburg will implode. Here are my predictions:

Pittsburg:
2TDs 1FG
78 rushing
280 passing (decent yardage but wrought with turnovers, mostly in the 2nd and 3rd quarters)

Seattle:
3TDs 2FGs
120 rushing
320 passing

Box:
S 10 7 3 7
P 7 3 0 7

Final Score: Seattle 27 Pittsburg 17

 
At 2:18 PM, Blogger Dante said...

I almost forgot:

Seattle will have 1 rushing TD and 2 passing TD.

Pittsburg will have 1 rushing TD and 1 passing TD.

 
At 4:31 PM, Blogger Dante said...

Oh and just to be clear beforehand, closest box score will be determined by the lowest:
abs(actual Pitt score - predicted Pitt score) + abs(actual Seattle score - predicted Seattle score). So if I predited Pitt 7 Seattle 10 and the actual score for that quarter was Pittsburg 6 Seattle 13, I would have (abs(6-7)+abs(10-13)) which equals (1+3) which equals 4.

 
At 10:47 PM, Blogger Patrick Armstrong said...

"Don't forget, Superbowl is this week." I thought, who would forget that?

Ooops

Here are all the wrong answers.

P: 7/10/3/7 = 27
S: 3/7/14/7 = 31

Pitt:
135 ry, 2TD, 2F
230 py, 1TD, 1INT
2 FG : 35yds, 42yds

Sea:
105 ry, 1TD, 1F
310 py, 3 TD, 1INT
1 FG : 25 yds

 
At 12:18 PM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

Yeah yeah, so i'm late to the party too...

Sea - 10/3/7/10 - 30
Pit - 7/7/7/7 - 28

Sea - 140ry, 200py, 2RTD, 1PTD, 3FG
Pit - 125ry, 250py, 1RTD, 3PTD, 0FG

 
At 1:01 PM, Blogger Dante said...

Scoring Summary:
Here's the scoring break down. Let me know if I goofed any stats.

So nobody picked the winner correctly since everyone who explicitly stated a pick chose Seattle and Pat picked a push score which equates to an automatic loss (there is much precident for this in previous pick weeks). I also didn't see Pat explicitly state a winner vs the spread which would've also been ok. We'll start by looking at the other 2 pointers.
Laddi 0, Dante 0, Pat 0, SAWB 0

Pitt Score 21:
Dante was only off by 4 with a pick of 17.
Laddi 0, Dante 2, Pat 0, SAWB 0

Seattle Score 10:
Laddi takes this one for picking the lowest number. He was 10 off.
Laddi 2, Dante 2, Pat 0, SAWB 0

Actual Spread 11:
Dante saw a 10 point spread happening (the other way but that's good enough).
Laddi 2, Dante 4, Pat 0, SAWB 0

Total Points 31:

I thought I was too high with 44 and it turns out I was. Good thing everyone else was higher.
Laddi 2, Dante 6, Pat 0, SAWB 0

One pointers:

Pitt Rushing 181:

Pat was closest at 46 off.
Laddi 2, Dante 6, Pat 1, SAWB 0

Pitt Passing 158:

Pat was closest again at 72 off.
Laddi 2, Dante 6, Pat 2, SAWB 0

Pitt RTD 2:
Pat nailed it.
Laddi 2, Dante 6, Pat 3, SAWB 0

Pitt PTD 1:
Dante and Pat both nailed it.
Laddi 2, Dante 6.5, Pat 3.5, SAWB 0

Pitt FG 0:
SAWB Nailed it.
Laddi 2, Dante 6.5, Pat 3.5, SAWB 1

Seattle Rushing 137:
Congrats to SAWB for only being 3 off.
Laddi 2, Dante 6.5, Pat 3.5, SAWB 2

Seattle Passing 259:
Pat was closest at 51 off.
Laddi 2, Dante 6.5, Pat 4.5, SAWB 2

Seattle RTD 0:
Pat, Laddi, and Dante were all 1 off.
Laddi 2 1/3, Dante 6 5/6, Pat 4 5/6, SAWB 2

Seattle PTD 1:
SAWB and Laddi nailed it.
Laddi 2 5/6, Dante 6 5/6, Pat 4 5/6, SAWB 2.5

Seattle FG 1:
Pat and Laddi nailed it.
Laddi 3 5/6, Dante 6 5/6, Pat 5 1/3, SAWB 2.5

Box 1 Pit 0 Sea 3:
Laddi was only 6 off on the formula.
Laddi 4 1/3, Dante 6 5/6, Pat 4 5/6, SAWB 2.5

Box 1 Pit 7 Sea 0:
SAWB was only 3 off on the formula.
Laddi 4 1/3, Dante 6 5/6, Pat 4 5/6, SAWB 3.5

Box 3 Pit 7, Sea 7:
SAWB nailed it.
Laddi 4 1/3, Dante 6 5/6, Pat 4 5/6, SAWB 4.5

Box 4 Pit 7, Sea 0:
Dante and Pat were both 7 off.
Laddi 4 1/3, Dante 7 1/3, Pat 5 1/3, SAWB 4.5


It looks like Dante got enough of the big picture items right (3 of 4) that he didn't need to pick up many of the smaller items. Pat really should've picked a winner on the push. He could've won outright by picking Pitt.

Laddi should've stuck by his numbers. It wouldn't have meant the game but he would've come in 2nd instead of 4th.

Between SAWB and Pat, they got a piece of every yardage, TD, and FG category for each team.

Everyone at least got a share of the box scores.


The praise:
"In this all-AFC crapfest of a Super Bowl, that 6 point score on the 2-pointers was just too much for anyone to overcome. Congratualations to Dante, who might've been backwards in his predictions, but knew it would be a 2-score spread of a low scoring game. Once again, notice that the lowest total points prediction won."

 

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