10 January 2006

NFL Playoffs - Week 2

Week 2 is now at hand. Ladies and gentlemen, make you picks.

Since there are 4 games, we're going to pick final scores for all of them. Each game will be broken down into 5 categories. Each category will be worth 1 point. A tie will split the point unless otherwise stated. Here are the categories:
-Closest to actual winner's score.
-Closest to actual loser's score.
-Closest to actual point spread.
-Closest to total points scored.
-Correctly picked the winner vs. the spread (This point will NOT be shared or split. If everyone gets it right, everyone gets 1 point.)

Also, since there are only 4 games and the line isn't nearly as important this time around, we're going to use a standard line from Bodog.

1. Seattle is favored by 9 over the Redskins
2. Denver is favored by 3 over New England
3. Indy is favored by 9.5 over the Steelers
4. Chicago is favored by 3 over the Panthers

Those are some big spreads so this should be an interesting weekend.

9 Comments:

At 8:45 AM, Blogger Dante said...

Dante's week 2 picks:

Seahawks 24 Redskins 14
Chris Simms handed the Redkins 14 points. The Redskins offense really only earned 3. The Seahawks won't make those same offensive mistakes but their defense isn't as good as Tampa's. I expect them to get 2 TDs here but the Seahawks are going to score more. The Skins D is good, but not good enough to stop Hasslebeck and Alexander.

Denver 21 New England 17
According to the 10 Day, weather won't be a factor at mile high so this should be a pretty interesting game. I'm picking Denver here for three reasons:
1. They're a better football team than people give them credit for.
2. They're playing at home.
3. None of the sports pundits have so much as uttered a word about Denver in the past few weeks. The more sports writers talk about a team, the worse they seem to do.

Indy 27 Pittsburg 17
Indy beat Pittsburg 26 to 7 last time they played, but that was while Roethlisberger was out hurt and Charlie Batch was hurling the rock. Roethilberger is healthy now but they're going up against an awfully good Indy defense. Given the week off, I'm giving Indy the game and the spread, but barely.

Chicago 10 Carolina 17
The Carolina D is almost as good as the Bears D going by number of yards allowed but the Bears D has allowed 7 fewer TDs over the course of the regular season. The Bears allow 4 fewer points per game. Unfortunately, a woefully underprepared Rex Grossman or a woefully untalented Kyle Orton will be going up against a D that is almost as good as their own. Generally, two defensive teams make for a high scoring game in the NFL for some unexplained but statistically verifiable reason. I just can't see that happening here due to the lack of depth and talent of the Bears offense.

 
At 8:34 PM, Blogger Patrick Armstrong said...

The Starbucks Bowl will feature a good offense vs a good defense. They'll hand Alexander the rock again and again and again. I don't see the Rainy Birds giving the Indians any points for free. Rainy Birds 27, Indians 10

Where's the Oxygen Bowl will feature two teams that I can't stand. Wyld Stallions are good, but this isn't BellyCheck's Bogus Adventure. Beantown 21, Mile High Horses 17.

Will the Real Manning Quarterback Please Stand Up Bowl And Peyton will, but not enough to cover. Baby Horses 31, Steel City 24

Cats & Bears Oh My Bowl Chitown's D is good, but they played Green Bay, Detroit and Manysexboata. Kakalak's D is better, they played the Dirty Birds, & Pirates. Cats book their tickets to Seattle, 20-17.

 
At 8:33 AM, Blogger Laddi said...

Hmm... A week late, but I'll get in on this.

1. If the Deadskins had an offense, this would be a scary game for Seattle. Expect to see a late garbage time TD by the east coast bastages.
Deadskins 13, Alexander's men 24

2. Location, location, location. An extra week to prepare and rest gives you a very healthy Anderson-Bell combo. If Shanahack doesn't screw with success, he'll run the ball 35 times for an easy win. Yes, easy win...if... Denver, pray for snow or heavy rain.
NE 17, Denver 24

3. 9.5 points?!? The Squeelers could make the game close on the back of Palomalu's crazy pass rush from the safety spot. They could even win. The key for Indy: pick up the pass blitz effectively.
Squeelers 21, Colts 27

4. Defensive battle. I'll take experience over weather in this one.
Carolina 17, Chicago 14

 
At 10:53 AM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

Lesbian Seagulls v Deadskins - Seattle is only a 9 point favorite here? Where do I sign up? The Deadskins offense didn't get any better this week compared to last week. Lesbian Seagulls in a romp 35 - 3.

John Denvers v Communists - Gonna be an ugly game, no matter which way you look at it. In the end, New England can't run the ball, Denver wins it close, 27 - 24.

The real Manning-bot v Steel-land - Can't really get a read on this one, but my gut tells me that Indy has trouble shaking the rust out of the Manning-bot in the first half. Indy wins, but Pity-town covers - 38-30.

DaBurzzz v Cackalack - Surprise, surprise. Defense wins this game. Carolina's defense that is. 14 - 10. Look for a Defensive TD or three...

 
At 10:34 PM, Blogger Dante said...

"Generally, two defensive teams make for a high scoring game in the NFL for some unexplained but statistically verifiable reason."

I just couldn't follow obvious NFL trends and lost the chance to hit a score-picking bonanza off of predicting Carolina and Chicago to be the high scoring game of the week that it was. I'll tally the results in the morning.

 
At 9:49 AM, Blogger Laddi said...

"The key for Indy: pick up the pass blitz effectively."

Obviously the Colts don't read this blog...

 
At 3:08 PM, Blogger Dante said...

Let's look at the games:

Seattle 20 Washington 10 (Spread: SEA):
Laddi and Dante split the credit for being 4 points off on Seattle's score.
Pat nailed Washington's score.
Dante nailed the spread.
Pat and Laddi split the Total.
Everyone gets a point for picking the winner vs. the spread.

After game 1: Pat (2.5), SAWB(1), Laddi(2), Dante(2.5)

Denver 27 New England 13 (Spread: DEN):
SAWB nailed Denver's score.
Laddi and Dante will split for each being 4 points off NE's score.
Laddi was closest by only being 7 off the spread.
Laddi also takes the point for only being 1 off the total points.
Ladi and Dante each get a point for picking right against the spread.

After game 2: Pat (2.5), SAWB(2), Laddi(5.5), Dante(4)

Indy 18 Pittsburg 21 (Spread:PIT):
Laddi and Dante will split being off by 9 on Indy's score.
Laddi nails Pitt's score.
Laddi is only 3 of the spread.
Dante gets within 1 of the total points scored.
PAT, SAWB, and Laddi each get a point for a correct pick vs. the spread.

After game 3: Pat (3.5), SAWB(3), Laddi(9), Dante(5.5)

Chicago 21 Carolina 29 (Spread: CAR):
Pat pulls to within 1 of Chicago's final score.
Laddi, Dante, and Pat get a three-way split for coming withing 12 (not our proudest moment).
Dante pulls within one of the spread.
Pat's within 13 of the total points scored and that's good enough.
Pat, Laddi, and Dante each get a point for picking correctly against the spread.

After game 4: Pat (6 5/6), SAWB(4), Laddi(10 1/3), Dante(7 5/6)

Laddi walks away with this one after crushing everyone on the Pittsburg game. Dante was 2 1/2 points out. Pat learned from his mistakes and was only off by 3 1/2. My calculator couldn't handle the load of figuring up how off SAWB was on the final score, but he knew that Denver score.

Interesting stats:
Everyone got at least one category exactly right. Pat, SAWB, and Laddi all had a total score right while Dante had a spread right.

There has been a three-way split both weeks.

The highest scoring game of the week was Chicago vs. Carolina. It even outscored all of last week's games (48 being the highest there).

Dante was a total of 1 point off the spread predictions for the NFC.

Laddi was only 11 points off of the total spread for all 4 games this weekend.

Laddi should've gone to Vegas with his picks. He was 4 for 4.

Every category that Laddi (or SAWB for that matter) won outright was an AFC game.

Every category that Pat won outright was an NFC game.

Praise: "Laddiaterout sure knows the AFC but isn't a slouch when it comes to the NFC. He came in this week and dominated the picks. We look forward to seeing him again for the AFC/NFC Championship games."

 
At 6:18 PM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

not that it matters in the long run, but i did hit the Panthers over Chicago ATS.

 
At 10:33 AM, Blogger Dante said...

It's actually in the score but I forgot to mention it in the review. Notice that after Game 3, you're at 3 and after Game 4, you're at 4. I wrote the sentence and it didn't look right. I rechecked and sure enough you did pick Carolina. I had it written down wrong on my scratch pad. Must've forgotten to correct the sentence.

 

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