17 January 2006

0x2dth Post (NFL Championship Weekend Picks)

Since there are 2 games, we're going to pick final scores for all of them. Each game will be broken down into 5 categories. Each category will be worth 1 point. An exact prediction this week will double that to 2 points. Since everyone nailed exactly one last week, I figure this is fair and will help prevent ties. A tie will split the point unless otherwise stated. Here are the categories:

-Closest to actual winner's score.
-Closest to actual loser's score.
-Closest to actual point spread.
-Closest to total points scored.
-Correctly picked the winner vs. the spread (This point will NOT be shared or split. If everyone gets it right, everyone gets 1 point. And since you either get this right or wrong, there is no 2-point bonus for this category.)

Also, since there are only 2 games and the line isn't nearly as important this time around, we're going to use a standard line from Bodog.

1. Seattle is favored by 4 over Carolina
2. Denver is favored by 3 over Pittsburg


At 4:58 PM, Blogger Laddi said...

Seattle v. Carolina
What a tough matchup to predict. The reason I love the NFL is one player doesn't dictate a win or loss. That is until you get matchups like this one where the question is: Can Seattle contain (not cover, just contain) Steve Smith?

So Mike Holmgren, I know you read this blog. Read closely. Man-zone on Smith's side ALL DAY. If Mike is reading this, Tatupu will have a monster day as he will settle in the middle of the field to make a pick and 5 tackles. Otherwise, Trufant and co will see the word "SMITH" getting smaller no matter how fast they run.

However, I think Holmgren was impressed by my Manning progno last week and we'll see a sub-100 performance by Smith and no run game by Carolina. I expect a consultant's fee wired to me Monday, Mike.

Panthers 10, Seahawks 20

Pittsburgh v. Denver

Ahh, snow games. You know it's winter time when you see 22 men on the field playing in the snow. Uh...that's one of the those: it sounds disturbingly nasty, but it's not.

Oh, and this is the warmest winter since Moses came down from Mount Sinai, so there'll be no snow this weekend, even a mile up from sea level.

Emotions will rule the day. Bettis to retire. Roethlisberger to show he's not just a QB in a system. Parker wanting to prove he can continue where Bettis leaves off. And Blitzburgh II trying to show they can carry a team.

And then reality will hit, when we see Roethlisberger throw 2 INTs.

Okay, so it'll be close and a back-n-forth game. If Shannahack (who I know doesn't read this as I don't think roid-heads can read at his age) has Plummer run screens effectively and gets Bell (off the screens) and Putzier in the game often, Lelie will be open deep. Pittsburgh cannot let Denver get up by even 10 points by the half, and I think they can do it. Expect no real rushing game by either, though they'll each top 20 run plays by the end of the game.

I'm going out on a limb and say we'll have free football in a kicker happy game.

Pittsburgh 23, Denver 26 in OT

At 8:35 AM, Blogger Dante said...

Seattle 24 Carolina 20
The Seahawks scored 20 against a good Redskins defense. I'm going to forgive the points given up in the Chicago game (given the rule of two defensive teams = high scroring game) and assume that Carolina will do comparably. Carolina's defense might not actually be as good, but their offense will at least help them out some. However, John Fox consistently does fraidy-cat things like punt in the maroon zone (between the opposing 40 and 20) on 4th and short and call obvious plays in certain situations. When is the last time you saw a short pass on 1st and Goal in Carolina? Such things are the hallmark of almost great teams. As much as I may hate it, this will be an all-AFC Super Bowl. (I still haven't accepted Seattle into the NFC fold yet). You also can't ignore Foster's absence. Nick Goings might be good but he's not at the top of the depth chart for a reason.

Denver 28 Pittsburg 21
Denver's a better team and they don't have the 1000 pound AFC-Championship-Losing gorilla on their backs. They've avoided the Colts game that has lead to their demise twice in recent memory. Look for the Snake to at least not lose the game and maybe even show us something special. Denver won't be unprepared for Pittsburg's defense since Wade Philips runs one of the best non-Pittsburg 3-4s around for the Denver nemesis out in San Diego.

At 11:54 AM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

Lesbian Seagulls v Cackalack - From all indications, it's going to be a cold, but dry, day in Latte-land. This means it will likely pour buckets. That said, the weather will be less of a factor than the relative health of both teams running games. Both are question marks, but Nick Goings will surprise a lot of people. Against my better judgement, I'm putting the Panthers in the Stupor bowl, with a 28-24 win.

John Denvers v Pity-town - Pity-town really, really, REALLY wants to get Jerome Bettis into the Stupor Bowl, before he retires after the season. Champ Bailey really, really, REALLY wants to prove that he can run hard for 100 yards. Pity-town's Defense makes fewer mistakes, Champ gets burned a couple of times, and the terrible towels will be waved in Detroit in a month or so. Pity-town 31, Rocky Mountain Highs 24.

At 3:57 PM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

UPDATE - I just ran simulations on an 'updated' Tecmo Super Bowl NES rom for both games. Here's what the fine people at tecmo say will happen -
Pittsburgh 35 - Denver 31
Carolina 23 - Seattle 21

we shall see what we get...

At 7:14 PM, Blogger Patrick Armstrong said...


The Early 90's Were Cool Here Bowl Seattle vs Carolina sounds more like a battle of music scenes. Rainy Birds have an offense that looked good at times last week. Blue Cats have a wicked defense. Out of the NFC, the only team that has a chance of winning this game is Carolina. But the location means a long trip and jet lag. This means the game will be decided by the weaksides: Cat's offense vs Birds' defense, and the Birds won't have enough. Appalachians Stomp the Grunge 23-19

The Always Freakin' Cold Championship Game Blitzburgh will not be intimidated by the weather - not after exposing the Colts. Denver is overconfident after whoopin' a New England team that didn't want to get their clothes dirty. Big Ben & the Bus don't just give this game to the horses, and the horses don't have enough to make it happen this year. Cold Steel shuts down the Pony Express 27 - 21.

At 10:12 PM, Blogger Patrick Armstrong said...

And that's why I'm not in the fantasy league.

At 10:20 PM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

No, you're not in the fantasy league because you're the chief Wuss-kateer. Perhaps you'll join us next year and play, like Gary did this year, Alice...

At 9:47 AM, Blogger Laddi said...

I would like to give myself props on the perfect call in the Seattle-Carolina game about how Holmgren could beat the cats with a man-zone coverage (which they did, coupled with Cover-2), and how Tatupu did get that pick I promised.

But I was sooo wrong on that Pitt game. I envisioned a correct game, just for the wrong team. Plummer gets picked twice. Putzburg ran the screen very well and opened up Wilson deep. Ugh. Btw, the Steelers run the screen better than any team in the NFL. Watch them when they run it in the Super Bowl. Always executed perfectly.

Oh, well. You win some, you lose some. That's why I don't bet.

At 10:29 AM, Blogger Dante said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 10:56 AM, Blogger Dante said...

I try to make things simpler by using a spreadsheet to keep track of the data and then I find an error in the spreadsheet. So here's an updates account of the pick scoring:

Seattle 34 Carolina 14
SAWB and Dante shamefully share the point for being closest to Seattle's score by being 10 points off.
Laddi gets the point for Carolina by only being off by 4.
Laddi was only 10 off the spread so he gets that point.
SAWB and Dante split the point for total points scored by only being 4 off.
Due to a calcualtion error on Dante's part, only Laddi gets the point for the win.

After NFC game:
Pat(0), SAWB(1), Laddi(3), Dante(1), Tecmo (0)

Pittsburg 34 Denver 17
Tecmo gets the closest to Pittsburg's score by only being 1 off so it gets a point. SAWB should've left those scores out since the point would've otherwise went to him.
Pat gets the point for only being 4 off of Denver's score.
SAWB and Dante split the spread by only being 10 off.
Laddi and Dante split the total points by only being 2 off.
Tecmo, Pat, and SAWB get a point for betting correctly against the spread.

After AFC game:
Pat(2), SAWB(2.5), Laddi(3.5), Dante(2), Tecmo (2)

So Pat and Dante couldn't do better than the stupid computer. SAWB and Laddi split the win.

Here's the praise:
"In a week where nobody really knew what to expect and two teams didn't even to bother showing up for their games, Laddi once again took the crown. What's interesting is that he made almost all his points off the NFC game despite being quite the AFC buff."

At 11:56 AM, Blogger S.A.W.B. said...

I'll take what should have been a split win with Laddi, which is buffered by the fact that you guys couldn't outpick a 16 year old game... ;)

At 1:12 PM, Blogger Dante said...

Hey, it must've been pretty thoroughly "updated" since it has Carolina in the league. The 16 year old game did pretty good considering it can't do 2 point conversions (at least the SNES version couldn't).


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